Sunday, February 8, 2009

Do they always have it?


Once again I was playing a game, and the only way I could possibly lose is if my opponent drew the 1 card he needed. First of all he had to have the card. Secondly he had to draw it. Lastly the game state had to be exactly as it was. This seems to happen to my friends and myself far more than sadistically probably, but is that the case? My answer is that no, it is not the case, but our own limited observation makes it seem so. If you are in Atlantic City and you see 10 black in a row, or 10 red in a row it will catch your eye, even though the probability is 1 in 500 of that happening, but do we notice the other 499 times when it does not happen? Another example would be that it seems like it always rains on the fourth of July, and New Years eve is the coldest night. If we look at the numbers it is, in fact, more along the norm.

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